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How dating has changed due to technology

How dating has changed due to technology

The transfer rumour mongering mill is grinding. Millions of dollars will exchange hands. Players will be disappointed. Fans and clubs alike will be disgruntled for failing to land their targeted players for the upcoming season.

Traditional big spenders comprising Real Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal and the rest of the Premier League big boys will also be unveiling new faces before the transfer window closes at the end of August.

But the million dollar questions are: What happens behind the scenes as clubs get ready for their summer spending? And how do teams actually get the deals done? What really has to transpire for a transfer to be rubber-stamped?

If you are a soccer fanatic, agent or club, here are the 10 steps of every transfer:

Scouting
Football scouting is an evolving industry. The days of the old-school scout, making instinctive judgments from the stands, are not quite over, but they are fading, particularly at the top level with the advent of computer technology.

Many clubs now use computer programmes, such as Scout7, to gather detailed statistical analyses of targeted players. Vital videos are uploaded within minutes of a game finishing, enabling a manager, head of recruitment or director of football to run the rule over a player from the comfort of his office.

Scouts on the other hand spend more time gathering intelligence off the field as they do watching a player on it – speaking to agents, forging relationships with a player’s family and friends. And most of all, to stay a step ahead of their arch rivals as the competition gets tough.

The bid
Once a player has been identified, the next step is to put a transfer (or loan) offer. The most common is for the club to submit a formal written offer for a player, seemingly by fax or email, which will then be considered by the selling club.

On the other hand, it is common for clubs to contact trusted agents to act on their behalf, either in finding an available player from another club, or finding a buyer for their own unwanted player. Agents act as intermediaries between the buyers and the sellers.

These can therefore kick start a deal that otherwise may not have been struck.

Tapping up?
Premier League rules clearly state that “a player under contract shall not directly or indirectly make any approach to another club without having obtained the prior written consent of the existing club to who he is contracted.”

But that is not always the case. Rarely will a bid be submitted for a player, without the buying club having contacted the player’s agent to hear if he would be interested in a move. And if so, how much is his asking price and expected wages.

Frowned upon? Certainly, but it is pretty much common practice across the game. The bulk of a deal is often set up before a fee has been agreed between the buying and selling clubs.

The negotiations
The media is possessed with phrases such as: “Preliminary talks,” “advanced discussions”, “talks ongoing”, “personal terms”, “showdown talks” – and the list keeps growing. Such phrases evoke images of a group of people – players, agents, chairmen, managers – sat around a table sliding pieces of paper with figures on them to each other, to be greeted by a shake of the head.

Again, the reality is very different. ‘Negotiation’ meetings are often brief, with an agent laying out a player’s demands, and an official (usually the chief executive, the head of recruitment or the director of football) giving their own side.

Common issues arising are: salary, bonuses and signing-on fees, as well as personal and social considerations. Players often leave the negotiations to their agents, and are kept abreast of the situation from afar. They usually meet with a manager before a deal goes through to discuss how he would fit in at his potential new club – and if they don’t, then they’re taking a huge risk.

Players’ dilemma
Players now possess more power in transfer deals. After all, it is their lives who will change. Considerations for a player prior to a transfer include how much playing time they would get if they moved clubs, whether they would need to re-locate (or learn a new language).

Would they be happy to work for the buying club’s manager and, particularly as you go down the leagues, the length of contract. Players, like anyone, want security. And, of course, there is also the financial aspect. Wages play a big part in any job decision, and in football the sums are vast, and still on the up.

The agents
Often branded as the enemy of football, agents in truth suffer from a familiar problem; the conduct of a few bad apples ruining the whole batch. In reality, agents are an important part of the game, particularly at this time of year, and good ones are valued, by both players and clubs.

As stated, agents can be used by clubs to identify players, or to find clubs for players they are looking to sell. Their network of connections is often a valuable tool for managers, from the highest level down.

They also, theoretically at least, should ensure players are able to focus on their football, without having to concern themselves with contract negotiations and discussions. A good agent should be as much a mentor and a confidante as a negotiator.

“My number one concern is my player,” says Neil Sang, a Liverpool-based agent who represents a number of players. “I listen to what my player wants, and then try to make it happen as best I can.”

The media
The media and player transfer is always a love-hate relationship. They love it because the stories keep them knee-deep in copy, but hate it because sifting through the garbage is an arduous and often disheartening process. Regularly, reporters will receive tip-offs about potential transfers, often via agents but sometimes from other sources.

Medical and work permit
The final hurdles in a deal are the medical and, for some players, the work permit. Medicals at top-level clubs are stringent, carried out at the training ground – Liverpool carry out tests on players at the Spire Hospital in Mossley Hill – and often well publicised through club’s official media channels.

But as time ticks away on deadline day clubs, naturally, have been known to take gambles. Liverpool, for example, signed Andy Carroll in January 2011 while the striker was sidelined with a thigh injury. Basically, if both club and player want a deal to go through, then it will.

Work-permits, meanwhile, are needed for any player over the age of 16 who does not own an EU passport. The buying club, basically, agrees to sponsor the player to be in the UK. A certificate of sponsorship is then produced by the club, which is submitted to the FA.

The FA will grant the work permit if the player has played 75% of competitive games for a FIFA-ranked top 70 nation over the past two years. Failure to meet this requirement will see an application rejected, unless it can be proven a player was unavailable for selection due to injury.

The drama
With all the time to conclude deals, why many clubs scratch around at 10pm with an hour before deadline? Drama addicts? Possibly. But the biggest factor about deadline day, especially in January, is how much of a domino effect is in operation. Clubs try to plan as best they can, but one transfer leads to others.

Additionally, a sudden run of poor form (or injuries) can lead to panic, particularly if a club is battling relegation, or chasing promotion. The risk of not adding to your squad when there are four months left in the season is deemed too big to ignore. Hence the “panic-buy” signings on the final day.

A club that is suddenly stripped of its star man late in the window, as Liverpool were with Torres, has to act fast, and that creates a knock-on, and a fair bit of drama too.

Done deal
The fee is agreed, the personal terms are agreed, and the medical is done. All that remains is to lodge the signed and sealed, finalised paperwork with the authorities. ….Oh, and to make sure you get the obligatory smiling photo of the player with his new manager, and his new club’s shirt.

The transfer rumour mongering mill is grinding. Millions of dollars will exchange hands. Players will be disappointed. Fans and clubs alike will be disgruntled for failing to land their targeted players for the upcoming season.

Traditional big spenders comprising Real Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal and the rest of the Premier League big boys will also be unveiling new faces before the transfer window closes at the end of August.

But the million dollar questions are: What happens behind the scenes as clubs get ready for their summer spending? And how do teams actually get the deals done? What really has to transpire for a transfer to be rubber-stamped?

If you are a soccer fanatic, agent or club, here are the 10 steps of every transfer:

Scouting
Football scouting is an evolving industry. The days of the old-school scout, making instinctive judgments from the stands, are not quite over, but they are fading, particularly at the top level with the advent of computer technology.

Many clubs now use computer programmes, such as Scout7, to gather detailed statistical analyses of targeted players. Vital videos are uploaded within minutes of a game finishing, enabling a manager, head of recruitment or director of football to run the rule over a player from the comfort of his office.

Scouts on the other hand spend more time gathering intelligence off the field as they do watching a player on it – speaking to agents, forging relationships with a player’s family and friends. And most of all, to stay a step ahead of their arch rivals as the competition gets tough.

The bid
Once a player has been identified, the next step is to put a transfer (or loan) offer. The most common is for the club to submit a formal written offer for a player, seemingly by fax or email, which will then be considered by the selling club.

On the other hand, it is common for clubs to contact trusted agents to act on their behalf, either in finding an available player from another club, or finding a buyer for their own unwanted player. Agents act as intermediaries between the buyers and the sellers.

These can therefore kick start a deal that otherwise may not have been struck.

Tapping up?
Premier League rules clearly state that “a player under contract shall not directly or indirectly make any approach to another club without having obtained the prior written consent of the existing club to who he is contracted.”

But that is not always the case. Rarely will a bid be submitted for a player, without the buying club having contacted the player’s agent to hear if he would be interested in a move. And if so, how much is his asking price and expected wages.

Frowned upon? Certainly, but it is pretty much common practice across the game. The bulk of a deal is often set up before a fee has been agreed between the buying and selling clubs.

The negotiations
The media is possessed with phrases such as: “Preliminary talks,” “advanced discussions”, “talks ongoing”, “personal terms”, “showdown talks” – and the list keeps growing. Such phrases evoke images of a group of people – players, agents, chairmen, managers – sat around a table sliding pieces of paper with figures on them to each other, to be greeted by a shake of the head.

Again, the reality is very different. ‘Negotiation’ meetings are often brief, with an agent laying out a player’s demands, and an official (usually the chief executive, the head of recruitment or the director of football) giving their own side.

Common issues arising are: salary, bonuses and signing-on fees, as well as personal and social considerations. Players often leave the negotiations to their agents, and are kept abreast of the situation from afar. They usually meet with a manager before a deal goes through to discuss how he would fit in at his potential new club – and if they don’t, then they’re taking a huge risk.

Players’ dilemma
Players now possess more power in transfer deals. After all, it is their lives who will change. Considerations for a player prior to a transfer include how much playing time they would get if they moved clubs, whether they would need to re-locate (or learn a new language).

Would they be happy to work for the buying club’s manager and, particularly as you go down the leagues, the length of contract. Players, like anyone, want security. And, of course, there is also the financial aspect. Wages play a big part in any job decision, and in football the sums are vast, and still on the up.

The agents
Often branded as the enemy of football, agents in truth suffer from a familiar problem; the conduct of a few bad apples ruining the whole batch. In reality, agents are an important part of the game, particularly at this time of year, and good ones are valued, by both players and clubs.

As stated, agents can be used by clubs to identify players, or to find clubs for players they are looking to sell. Their network of connections is often a valuable tool for managers, from the highest level down.

They also, theoretically at least, should ensure players are able to focus on their football, without having to concern themselves with contract negotiations and discussions. A good agent should be as much a mentor and a confidante as a negotiator.

“My number one concern is my player,” says Neil Sang, a Liverpool-based agent who represents a number of players. “I listen to what my player wants, and then try to make it happen as best I can.”

The media
The media and player transfer is always a love-hate relationship. They love it because the stories keep them knee-deep in copy, but hate it because sifting through the garbage is an arduous and often disheartening process. Regularly, reporters will receive tip-offs about potential transfers, often via agents but sometimes from other sources.

Medical and work permit
The final hurdles in a deal are the medical and, for some players, the work permit. Medicals at top-level clubs are stringent, carried out at the training ground – Liverpool carry out tests on players at the Spire Hospital in Mossley Hill – and often well publicised through club’s official media channels.

But as time ticks away on deadline day clubs, naturally, have been known to take gambles. Liverpool, for example, signed Andy Carroll in January 2011 while the striker was sidelined with a thigh injury. Basically, if both club and player want a deal to go through, then it will.

Work-permits, meanwhile, are needed for any player over the age of 16 who does not own an EU passport. The buying club, basically, agrees to sponsor the player to be in the UK. A certificate of sponsorship is then produced by the club, which is submitted to the FA.

The FA will grant the work permit if the player has played 75% of competitive games for a FIFA-ranked top 70 nation over the past two years. Failure to meet this requirement will see an application rejected, unless it can be proven a player was unavailable for selection due to injury.

The drama
With all the time to conclude deals, why many clubs scratch around at 10pm with an hour before deadline? Drama addicts? Possibly. But the biggest factor about deadline day, especially in January, is how much of a domino effect is in operation. Clubs try to plan as best they can, but one transfer leads to others.

Additionally, a sudden run of poor form (or injuries) can lead to panic, particularly if a club is battling relegation, or chasing promotion. The risk of not adding to your squad when there are four months left in the season is deemed too big to ignore. Hence the “panic-buy” signings on the final day.

A club that is suddenly stripped of its star man late in the window, as Liverpool were with Torres, has to act fast, and that creates a knock-on, and a fair bit of drama too.

Done deal
The fee is agreed, the personal terms are agreed, and the medical is done. All that remains is to lodge the signed and sealed, finalised paperwork with the authorities. ….Oh, and to make sure you get the obligatory smiling photo of the player with his new manager, and his new club’s shirt.

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I was at an estate sale not that long ago, and I came across a cancelled-stock certificate issued from the Brunswick Company. Back then, it was called the Brunswick-Balke-Collender Company, and derived much of its revenue from developing and selling equipment related to bowling allies. It has actually been a decent investment through the modern area, as it has mitigated against the bowling industry’s collapse by expanding into boating and marine technology services over the years (think of Warren Buffett using the last profit puffs at the Berkshire mills to buy up banks and insurance companies.)

Although the Brunswick Company managed to survive, I was thinking about one of the least-known stock market bubbles in American history—the Great Bowling Alley Bubble of the late 1950s and early 1960s. Between 1956 and 1962, the United States witnessed 125 new bowling alleys enter the market each month. The total bowling alley count increased from 4,500 to almost 13,000 at that time. Contrast that to the 3,500 bowling alleys in existence today, roughly on par with WWII era levels.

It is something that I occasionally think about because it would have been perfectly logical for an enterprising investor to make a large investment in a bowling alley company in 1959. Bowling had a distinguished history, with a record of serving as a recreational outlet dating back to Dutch immigrants in the United States during colonial times.

You think people get excited about the stability of baseball, basketball, hockey, and football as lucrative investments with pro franchises fetching over a billion dollars? Well, bowling is older than all four of those sports—combined. If you wanted stability, bowling seemed like a lucrative investment because “people would always need something to do on a Saturday night.”

Furthermore, bowling appeared to experience some of the characteristics that a business look attractive.

It benefitted from technological advancement. It is not an understatement to say that the post-war development of the automatic pin-setter revolutionized the industry, as bowling could be entirely leisure—you throw the ball, and get it back, without having to stop and reset the pins yourself or go to an alley where you had to wait for the guy in back to reset them.

Also, there were add-on sources of revenue for the bowling alley. You’d have to rent bowling shoes. You might buy pizza, beer, and other concessions, or the alley could rent out part of its real estate to businesses that wanted to do the same. Also, mean bowling alleys added arcades and even pool tables.

A 400+ year history, benefits from technology, and multiple revenue streams made bowling stocks look like lucrative investments.

And the investor class largely agreed. If you purchased Brunswick-Balke-Collender stock in 1951, you would have earned 2,345% cumulative returns by 1961. People got excited about Amazon and Apple during the first decade of the 21 st century, but iPhones and fast book shipments created similar “Best 10 Year Returns” to bowling in its heyday. If you bought Brunswick stock in 1960, you didn’t break even until 1993, and that is one of the best-case outcomes for investors that bought stocks or invested their money in bowling alleys in the 1956-1960 stretch.

Of course, the trend changed. Bowling leagues faltered, and the average working class American went from bowling 8 times per year on average in 1959 to officially bowling less than once per year by 1974. There was also a supply glut from the doubling of bowling alleys, and to make matters worse, bowling alleys were financed by large chunks of debt that went unpaid when these large swaths of real estate became vacant.

You know how Delaware is the leading Court in the country for determining corporate-type case law because so many companies incorporate in Delaware and Delaware judges are known for setting extremely persuasive precedent in other states because of their sophistication in corporate transactions?

Well, if you follow a lot of Delaware case cites, you’ll see that they are applying a lot of law that got decided in the early 1960s when the bowling bubble collapsed. The rules governing what a creditor can do regarding delinquent property, how to wind down partnership and corporations after the venture goes bust, and other leading questions originally got decided in the aftermath of the bowling crisis when the banks, investors, and operators squabbled with each other to reclaim any leftover capital that could be extracted after bowling spazz-balled as a recreational activity.

I think the collapse of an industry with an almost half-a-millennium track record, shortly after the time in which it looked like the industry was set to improve, is one of the most instructive case studies on the value of diversification.

If you had less than 20% of your net worth in the bowling sector in the 1960s, you could survive to fight another day. Once you start getting over a third or so of your wealth invested in a venture that fails, you are talking undoing decades of hard work that may be accompanied by a psychological tendency to respond by swinging for the fences to recoup your losses.

You may have seen that Warren Buffett speech at Florida in the early 1990s in which he defined diversification as the ownership in a minimum of six stocks. I don’t think that number is a coincidence. If you have six profit streams, the failure of any one will only amount to a 17% or so reduction in income.

That can be made up. In fact, that’s what happened to bank stock investors when the industry collapsed during the 2009 financial crisis and most banks cut their dividends and some went bankrupt or heavily diluted their shareholders. If you lost 17% of your portfolio income due to bank failure in 2009, and the rest of your portfolio mimicked the S&P 500 and you reinvested your dividends, you were back to even from an income basis in 2012. Three years is a tolerable rebuilding duration after you experience near total failure with a significant minority portion of your wealth.

People have different definitions of what financial success looks like. My view is that industrious wealth-builders should aim to create six sources that create at least $1,000 per month in income. If you ever reached that point, the only risk remaining in your life would be the excess of leverage, fraud, or any folly that results from your own aggrandizement after accomplishing such a feat. When you study the wealthy families that remain so, it seems that a wide collection of cash-generating assets plays an important explanatory role in explaining why they survive and prosper generation after generation. At a minimum, the starting point should be avoidance of sharing anything in common with the “bowling investor families” of the 1960s that got wiped out by the Great Bowling Alley Collapse.

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